THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE MOVEMENT ON THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page - - - - - - - - - - i
Approval - - - - - - - - - - ii
Dedication - - - - - - - - - - iii
Acknowledgement - - - - - - - - - iv
Abstract - - - - - - - - - - v
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
1.7 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
1.8 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.1 THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES
2.2 DEFINING OIL PRICE SHOCK
2.3 MONETARY POLICY AND OIL PRICES
2.4 ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF OIL PRICE CHANGES
2.5 STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2.6 OIL PRICE AND STOCK MARKET
2.7. EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES
2.8 OTHER COUNTRIES
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
3.2 SOURCES OF DATA
3.3 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (MODEL SPECIFICATION)
3.4 VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION (VAR)
3.4.1 IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION
3.4.2 VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
4.1 DATA PRESENTATION
4.2 EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
4.2.1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
4.2.2 INTEREST RATE
CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION OF REGRESSION RESULTS
5.1 UNIT ROOT TEST
5.2 LAG LENGTH SELECTION CRITERIA:
5.3 EMPIRICAL RESULT
5.3.1 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
5.3.2 VAR EXCERPT
5.4 CORRELATION MATRIX TEST
5.4.1 EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK PRICE IN NIGERIA
5.4.2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND VALUE OF SHARE TRADED
5.5 EXCERPT OF GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST
5.6 IMPULSE RESPONSE GRAPH
5.7 FURTHER DISCUSSION OF THE REGRESSION RESULT
5.8 EVALUATION OF WORKING HYPOTHESES
CHAPTER SIX: SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
From the middle of twentieth century onwards, crude oil has become one of the main indicators of economic activity worldwide, due to its outstanding importance in the supply of the world's energy demands.
Nigeria as one of the major suppliers of crude oil in the international market has depended so much in the oil price in making their annual budgets.
According to Odusami (2006:1), fluctuations in the price of crude oil have significant implications for a Varity of economic activities. For example, Hamilton (1983) showed that significant increase in oil price preceded every post World War 11 recession in the U.S. Mork (1989:20) examined the evidence of asymmetric response of output to oil price increase and decrease and find evidence of negative correlation between oil prices increase and output growth. Lee and Ratti (1995:53) scrutinized the effect of real oil price on output and show that in long periods of economic stability, oil price shock affects output in U.S., Japan, Germany, Canada, France, UK and Norway.
It could be seen that the public has been particular concerned about oil price fluctuations. These fluctuations have become one of the current affairs published on the front pages by the vast majority of the world's newspapers (especially in US), mainly from the Yom Kippur War of October 5, 1973. Thus, the prevailing view among economists is that there is a strong relationship between the growth rate of a country and oil price changes.
Agren (2006:4) states that the oil price influence on stock markets is an interesting and important issue, even more so recently when the world oil price has displayed great instability. He further maintains that during April of 2006, the price of crude oil was in the neighborhood of (U.S) $70 per barrel, which is well above the price of $20 during most of the 1990's. In a recent survey of oil in the Economist, Vaitheeswaran (2005:16) proposes that the explanation for the rise is that oil markets have seen an abnormal combination of tight supply, surging demand, and financial speculation. One might also consider the unstable political situation in the Middle East. And the activities of militant groups in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria a candidate cause for the rise in oil prices.
It is important to point out here as in the words of Jones, Leiby and Paik (2004:8) that the stock market has been viewed as an information collection and processing institution. The asset prices it establishes depend on information about future prospects as well as current conditions facing firms. The efficiency with which stock markets process information has been a subject of intense study for several decades.
If stock-price or rate-of-return forecasts cannot be improved upon by use of any of other information, the case can be made that the stock market is already using all publicly and privately available information in the formation of those prices. Reasonable to expect that the stock market would absorb the information about the consequences of an oil price shock and incorporate it into stock prices very quickly. Since asset prices are the present discounted value of the future net earnings of firms, both the current and the future impacts of such a shock should be absorbed into prices and returns without having to wait for those impacts to actually occur.
There exist a few research works that links oil prices to stock markets. Jones and Kaul (1996) test whether stock markets are rational in the sense that they fully adjust to the impact of oil Shocks on dividends. In their study of the U.S, Canadian, Japanese, and U.K stock markets, initially show that all the markets respond negatively to oil shocks. Huang, Masulis, and Stoll (1996) looked at the oil futures market and the stock market using daily data. Sadorsky (1999) on the other hand studies the impact of real oil price shocks on real stock returns by estimating vector auto regressions, including U.S industrial production and short interest rates. The study separates positive from negative oil shocks, and, contrary to Huang et al (1996), presents evidence that shocks to the oil price do affect aggregate stock returns Basher and Sadorsky (2004), using a multifactor arbitrage pricing model, find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts returns of emerging stock markets.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS
The study is necessitated by the fact that Nigeria's economy over the last two decades has been hanging on the oil proceeds. It has also been identified that the volatilities of these oil prices have significant implications for a variety of economic activities. This view has been well elucidated by the works of various authors including those of Rasche and Tatom (1981), Hamilton (1983, 1985, 1996, 2003), Burbidge and Harrison (1984), santini (1985), Gisserand Goodwin (1986), Loungani (1986), Tatom (1988), Mork (1989), Hamilton and Herrera (2004) and many others, who have convincingly argued that oil prices were both significant determinants of U.S economic activity and exogenous to it in the post-war period.
Despite over 30 years of research since the first major postwar oil crisis in 1973, non of such work has been carried out in a developing country like Nigeria and not much has been done on an oil exporting economy, which Nigeria also belong.
Since oil plays prominent role in Nigerian economy, one would expect changes in oil prices to be correlated with change in stock prices. Significantly, it could be argued that if oil affects real economic activities, it will affect earnings of companies through which oil is a direct or indirect cost of operation.
Thus, an increase in oil prices will cause expected earning to increase in the case of oil exporting nations, and this would bring about an immediate increase in stock price if the stock market effectively capitalizes the cash flow implications of the oil price increases. If on the other hand, the stock market is inefficient, stock returns might be slow as is the case with Nigeria.
This research therefore, is to ascertain the effect of these oil price shocks on the Nigerian stock market and how to make the stock market more efficient to handle oil price shock.
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH
Based on the identified research problem, the following objectives were set for the research.
The primary objective of this research is to determine the impact of oil price shocks on the Nigerian stock market. The secondary objectives include:
i) To determine the relationship between oil price and value of share traded.
ii) To find out how oil price shock transmits to the Nigerian stock market.
iii) To find out how the Nigerian stock market could efficiently handle the oil price shock effect in order not to slow stock returns.
1.4 THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS
In the light of the above objectives, the researcher considers the following research questions as pertinent in addressing the various issues raised in this work.
i. Does oil price shock have significant impact on the Nigerian stock market?
ii. What kind of relationship exists between oil price shock and value of share traded?
iii. How does oil price shock transmit to stock market?
1.5 STATEMENT OF RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
The following propositions are formulated for this study.
1. Oil price shock does not have significant impact on the Nigerian stock market.
2. There is no significant relationship between oil price shock and value of share traded.
3. The shock in crude oil prices does not transmit to the Nigerian stock market.
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The issue of oil price shock is such that it affects all the macroeconomic factors in all economic fulcrums in Nigeria, but this research will be restricted to finding out the impact of oil price shock on the Nigerian stock market.
This study covered period of thirty two years (1979 to 2010). During this period, the companies stock quoted at the Nigerian stock exchange market will be considered.
Because of time and space, the study is limited to Nigerian stock market only five economic variables. However, the work gave an insight into the impact of oil price shock on other emerging economies and developed ones.
1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
According to Clements and Hendry (1995), the limitations of any study are in the nature of constraints and bottlenecks, which could have created deficiencies, restrictions, biases, prejudices and confinements to the conduct and findings of the study. This study was limited by the following factors:
i. The high cost of sourcing information and data from various visual libraries, international journals and internet archives.
ii. The unwillingness of the stock market officials and staff of various companies whose stocks are quoted in Nigerian stock exchange market in releasing useful and detailed information to the researcher.
iii. In certain cases, gratifications are demanded for information to be given, where the gratification was not forthcoming then the information was withheld.
1.8 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study is of great significance to various stakeholders in Nigerian economy for various reasons.
Findings and recommendations in this thesis will be a guide to the investors in the capital market who will love to reduce the level of their risk by understanding the various factors that affect the stock price in the market.
It is believed to be of immense benefit to the Nigerian government and policy makers whose annual budget is based on anticipated crude oil price benchmark.
The study will also be of great benefit to directors of various companies, especially those whose activities are affected or determined by the oil prices.
The research work would also be useful to the various scholars in the field of finance and economics as well as future researchers who may wish to share ideas with the researcher or to advance further on the study or use the work as source of secondary data for their future works.
The study will fill the gap that exist in the study of oil price shock and the stock market as it will be the first of such work to be carried out in Nigeria as an emerging economy and supplier of crude oil in the International market.
Finally, this study is also significant to the researcher in the sense that it will widen his scope of the knowledge of both oil price shock and Nigerian stock market. This study also is a requirement for the award of Ph.D in Banking and finance..