TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON MARRIAGE REGISTRATION (A CASE STUDY OF MARRIAGE, REGISTRY OF SOCIAL WELFARE IN ILORIN, KWARA STATE 2000-2011)
The study examined time series analysis on marriage registration in Ilorin, Kwara State between (2000 – 2011). The data used was collected from marriage registry, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin, Kwara State. Moving average, simple linear regression was used for the analysis. The result on trend value clearly show that, there is a steady decrease in the number of marriage from second half of the year 2002 up to January 2003, and from there, there was a shape increase in the number of marriage. Also trend of marriage contains seasonal variation, which have been smoothing by moving average method. Thus, the trend value appears to follow almost identical patterns during the corresponding month of the successive years. This indicated that Christmas and New Year festivals have influence on marriage as it can be seen on the trend values.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page i
Table of content vi
1.0 Introduction 1-2
1.1 Types of marriage 2-4
1.2 Historical background of marriage registry 5-6
1.3 Statement of problems 7
1.4 aim and objectives of the study 8
1.5 Significant of the study 8
1.6 Scope and limitation of the study 8-9
1.7 Problems encountered 9
2.0 Literature review 10
2.1 Introduction: 10-16
Methodology and data presentation 17
3.0 Introduction 17
3.1 Sources of data 17-18
3.2 Presentation of data 18-19
3.4 method of analysis 24
3.4.1 Time series analysis 24
3.4.2 Components of time series 25
3.5 Model used in the analysis 25
3.6 Methods of estimating trend 26
Analysis of data 27
4.0 Introduction 27
4.1 Moving average 27-33
4.2 Computation of seasonal index using percentage
moving average for marriage registration 34-38
Summary of findings, conclusion and Recommendations 51
5.0 Summary of findings 51-52
5.1 Conclusion 52-53
5.2 Recommendations 53
Marriage according to Collins dictionary simply defines marriage as “ The state or relationship of being husband and wife or a contact made by man and woman to live as husband and wife “ The Christian understanding of marriage goes deeper than the definition given above it look at marriage as a convenient. The matrimonial covenant by which a man and a woman establish between themselves.
While marriage in islamic perspective is viewed as the method chosen Allah for protection, multiplicity and continuity of life after each of the spouse have been adequately prepared by Allah in discharging positively the marital responsibilities. Also according to legal perspective, marriage is universally accepted to be a union of man and woman, that is, union of persons of opposite sex.
Marriage is founded on an and governed by the social and religions norms of the society. The history of marriage can be traced back to the documents of second vacation council (Gaudiumet Spes) on the subject of holiness of marriage and the family that states that “the intimate partnership of life and the love which constitute the marriage state has been establish by the creator and endowed by him with its own laws, it is rooted in a contract of the partner”.
Marriage can be defined psychologically as a contract enter into by two adults of opposite sex to live together has husband and wife until death do them apart.
In other words, marriage could be defined as marital union between a man and a woman.
1.1 TYPES OF MARRIAGE
There are three major types of marriages namely,
i. CHRISTIAN MARRIAGE: Is a marriage conducted by an ordained person (priest, Reverend, Pastor etc) couples getting married under Christianity have agreed to live by the doctrine of the holy bible. In Christian marriage polygamy is allowed, but the number of wife they can married is stipulated. This can be traced in the old testament which states that “the polygamy of Patriarchs and kings is not yet explicitly rejected”.
ii. ISLAMIC MARRIAGE: Are performed according to the laws of islam. It can be carried out by an alpha, imam or muslim scholar in a mosque or in a private home. Therefore, Muhammad (S.A.W) came while the practice of polygamy was coming and deeply rooted in the social life. The Quran did not ignore the practice or discard its, nor its let it continued unchecked or unrestricted. The benevolent intervention of the Quran permits a maximum of four wives in which equality among the wives in the treatment, provisions and kindness must be fulfilled.
iii. CUSTOMARY OR TRADITIONAL MARRIAGE: This was method of marriage used before of arrival of the colonial master and the foreigners that brought Christianity, Islam and other religions. The traditional or customary obligation required in the olden days kola nut, yam tubers, honey, sugar cane, cloths and various other things which might include physical cash to be taking to the family of bride (wife).
It is after the traditional ceremony that other ceremonies follow which might include going to marriage registry announce their intention to get married legally. In customary marriage one man can marry many wives and the actual number is not stated in any text. But in the olden days, our forefathers who were mostly farmers married many wives and have many children to assist them in their farming activities.
LEGAL MARRIAGE: Legal marriage is the marriage that is carried out accordance with the provision of the laws that applies to marriage in Nigeria which is called the married act. One wife is permitted in legal marriage. This can be find in section 370 of the criminal code which reads. “any person who, having a husband or wife living marries in any case in which such marriage is avoid by reason of it taking place during the life such husband or wife is guilty of a felony, and liable to imprisonment for seven years”.
Therefore, this study is interested in the legal marriage due to the fact that the available data in the registry is base on legal marriage.
1.2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF MARRIAGE REGISTRY
It on record that the history of marriage registry can dated back to 1863 when the first ordinance dealing with legal marriage was enacted. The provision of this ordinance are traceable to the colonial master in their colonies of Nigeria was one.
Thus, since the adoption of the law from it introduction to the amendments through the review of the law principles itself by the law makers in the independence Federal Republic of Nigeria so as to suit its citizens in order to make it practicable.
The amendment of the marriage act according to the constitution gave birth to legal marriage which is described in law as union between husband and wife to exclusion of others.
In Nigeria today, in realization of meaningful planning and development, the authority has conferred the power to solidify marriage union on the various marriage registries in the States and local government areas since 1999 to
1) Undertake the registration of marriage
2) Advise the waitresses from both side of the couples on their roles in order to make the family a happy union
3) Issuance of marriage certificate to the couples
4) Disseminate information and educate the general public about the activities of the registry.
5) Provide information on marriage statistics
1.3 STATEMENT OF PROBLEMS
The problems facing the marriage registry since its constitution are not farfetched. These problems are
1) Inadequate record: this simply mean that record were kept, but it is not properly and efficiently kept as it is expected.
2) Orientation and enlightment is lacking as regard to marriage registration.
3) In the state, there is crises between the ministry of local government and ministry of social welfare on the issue of who is rightful constituted body to carry out the registration exercise hence its hindering the prosperity of the work.
Therefore, this study is interested in the actual fact on ground. To see how people have been patronizing the registry for marriage to show us the available data for further statistical analysis.
1.4 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1) To determine the relationship between the number of marriages and times
2) To check whether Christmas and New Year festivals have influence on marriage.
3) To predict for further marriages.
1.5 SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY
The study will provide useful information for effective social and economics planning process for both governmental and non-governmental organization by using the result of the findings such as the knowledge of relationship between the number of marriage and time and the predicted future marriages.
1.6 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
Due to the short period of time and resources to carryout this research, the scope of the study was limited to registry marriage, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin, Kwara State.
Marriage registration was fully started throughout the states and local government areas of the Federation in 1999 by marriage registries.
Ministry of social welfare, marriage registry, Ilorin happens to be one of the registries selected for the project in Kwara State as at that year, hence, the study would be for twelve years (2000 – 2011).
1.7 PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED
To embark on a survey study of this nature was never an easy task. The data I used was collected from marriage registry, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin. Hence I have problem in obtaining my data due to inadequate records kept.
Moreso, I have to adjust to their convenient time before I could collect required data, hence it cost me in terms of money and time..