This project has the aim of studying the fertility and mortality rate in Osogbo Local Government.  The study employed the use of statistical methods like moving Average, least square and Demography analysis.  The result of the analysis shows that there is relationship between fertility and mortality. It is also the predictive power of an increase. Therefore, it is recommended that government should provide more medical facilities for easy delivery.        


Title page                                         i

Certification                                         ii

Dedication                                         iii

Acknowledgement                                     iv

Abstract                                         v

Table of content                                     vi


1.1    Introduction                                      1

1.2    Historical background                             1

1.3    Aims and objectives                                1 – 2

1.4    Types of statistics                                 2

1.5    Uses of statistics                                 2

1.5.1    Types of statistical data                             2

1.5.2    Primary data                                     2

1.5.3    Secondary data                                 3

1.6    Possible limitation to the use of data                     3


2.0    Literature review                                 4

2.1    Definition of terms                                 4

2.1.1    Migration                                     4

2.1.2    Migrant                                     4 

2.1.3    Net reproduction rate                            5

2.1.4    Cohort or generation life table                         5

2.1.5    Current life table                                 5

2.1.6    Complete life table                                 5

2.1.7    Abridge life table                                 5

2.1.8    Life birth                                     5 - 6

2.1.9    Life table                                     6

2.2    Gross reproductive rate                             6

2.3     Measure of fertility                                 6

2.4    Crude birth rate                                 6 

2.5    Age specific fertility rate                             7

2.6    Total fertility rate                                     7

2.7    General fertility rate                             7

    Concept of demography

2.8    Rates                                         7

2.9    Ratio                                         7 – 8

2.19    Proportion                                     8

2.20    Crude rates                                     8

2.21    Child women ratio                                 8

2.22    Fertility curve                                 8

2.23    Measure of mortality                             8 – 9

2.24    Crude death rate                                 9

2.25    Age specific death rate (ASDF)                        9

2.26    Infant mortality rate (IMF)                            9

2.27    Neo-natal mortality rate (NNMR)                        9

2.28    Post neo natal mortality rate (PNMR)                    9 – 10

2.29    Peri natal mortality rate                             10

2.30    Mortality rate                                 10

2.31    Maternal mortality rate                             10


3.0    Research methodology                             11

3.1    Crude birth rate                                 11

3.2    General fertility rate                             11

3.3    Total fertility rate                                 11

3.4    Age specific birth rate                            12

3.5    Child women ratio                                 12

Research tools on mortality                                

3.6    Crude death rate                                 12

3.7    Infant mortality rate                                 12

3.8    Age specific death rate                             12

3.9    Moving average method                             13

3.10    Least square method                             13


4.0    Presentation of data and analysis                     14

4.1    Analysis and presentation of data                     14 – 15

4.2    Calculation of fertility                             15 –

4.3    Calculation of mortality                             17

4.4    Calculation of fertility and mortality least square method         18 – 23

4.5    Prediction on fertility and mortality                     23 – 25

4.6    Result of analysis                                 25


5.1    Summary                                     26

5. 2    Conclusion                                     26

5.3    Recommendation                                26

    References                                     27



In statistical analysis and inference statistics is playing an important role nearly in all phases of human life. Formally dealing only with affair of the state and this account for its name statistics.   

The influence of statistics is now spread to manufacturing companies, agricultural sectors, bank, business communication, economic, education, political science, psychology, sociology and other numerous held of life. It’s therefore, a body of scientific method and theory of collecting, organizing, presenting and analyzing of data as well as drawing valid conclusion and making a reasonable decision. The application is found in all discipline of numerical form.

Furthermore, this project is to explain and to analyze more on fertility and mortality rate of people in “OSOGBO LOCAL GOVERNMENT”. This project cover four fiscal year from 2006 – 2009 and data is being collected at LAUTECH TEACHING HOSPITAL OSOGBO. Also computation would be determined from the total number of fertility and mortality rate and this will be use for information required for the actualization of facts.


LAUTECH TEACHING HOSPITAL is owned by both Osun State Government and Oyo State Government. The hospital is situated at Idi-seke area in Osogbo Local Government. LAUTECH Teaching Hospital is equiped to standard that no other hospital in the state can complete with it. LAUTECH Teaching Hospital has many professional doctors and well trained and very efficient nurses.


-    To know whether the number of life birth (Fertility) of Osogbo Local Government is more than number of death (Mortality).            

-    To be able to study the future occurrence in the rate of fertility and mortality by using least square method.

-    To measure the trend value of fertility and mortality rate by using moving average method.


There are two types of statistics namely:    

i.    Descriptive statistics

ii.    Inference statistics

In descriptive statistics, the research has information on every member of the population and also describes the characteristics of the population such as: Total, average, Means or more (Population Parameters). But in Inferential Statistics, the researcher has information on part of population (sample). Mean, mode and standard deviation are collected for the sample; each of them is called statistics.   


Statistics is useful in all field of human endeavour. We can use the knowledge of statistics to find the number of employed people in a country, we can use it to find market trend, to make any possible request in any business ventures. Infact, there is no aspect of our daily life that statistics is not applicable.


Data can be defined as pieces of information collected for specific purpose.  

In any survey, what determines the types of data to be collected is the topic studying upon, which enquiries are to be made.  


Primary data can be define as the data collected or drawn from the original source for specific reason, from which it will be useful. These types of data are always accurate and reliable upon it can be collected through these methods:

i.    Mail questionnaire

ii.    Telephone interview

iii.    Personal interview

iv.    Direct observation

v.    Experiment 


This is the data collected for a purpose different for which is originally meant for. It is a secondhand data collected for a purpose direct from statistical enquiries in which they used. It has the advantage of reducing the time and cost to be used.  


The data collected is a secondary data and it’s liable to some kind of difficulties which limits the extent to which it can be used dealing with secondary data.

Therefore, any suggestion or recommendation made as the outcome of analysis is not only meant for LAUTECH Teaching Hospital.



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